Fixed or variable mortgages in a time of interest hikes

Tracy Head • October 24, 2022

Last weekend I attended the mortgage professionals conference in Vancouver. My goal was to take in as many professional development sessions as possible because I’m finding we are moving forward in a very strange interest rate environment.

Ironically, and I never thought I’d ever say this, the session I got the most from (and arguably enjoyed the most) was the presentation by Benjamin Tal. Tal is the managing director and deputy chief economist at CIBC Capital Markets Inc.


He spoke about his thoughts on our current rate environment, the forces driving the Bank of Canada’s economic policies, and where he felt rates will go.


He also spoke about the unprecedented rate hikes we’ve seen this year. The Bank of Canada is trying desperately to curb inflation and he thought the bank has gone too far and has overreached with the rate hikes this year.


I am a fan of variable rate mortgages. One of the key factors that influences this is the cost of breaking your mortgage early. If you need to pay your mortgage in full and it doesn’t make sense (or doesn’t work) to port your current mortgage, the maximum penalty you will be charged is three months’ interest.


With a fixed mortgage, the penalty to break your mortgage is normally the greater of either the interest rate differential (IRD) or three months’ interest. Investopedia.ca shows how an IRD penalty is calculated:


“An IRD weighs the contrast in interest rates between two similar interest-bearing assets. Most often it is the difference between two interest rates.”


This type of penalty can be substantial. I’m currently working with a client who is selling a luxury property whose current mortgage is up for renewal. It is a sizeable mortgage and he is understandably concerned about the volatility of mortgage interest rates right now.


I did the math for him. Had he locked into a five-year fixed-rate mortgage, based on where rates are now and the balance of his mortgage, his penalty was in the range of $32,000. The variable rate penalty, again based on today’s balance and rate, would be around $6,000. So for this particular client who is absolutely going to be selling his home in the next year the potential increase in payment due to rising rates was a far more palatable option than a penalty in the $32,000 range.


All this aside, for many Canadians in variable mortgages the incredible rate hikes we’ve seen this year make a massive dent in their monthly budget. It’s really tempting to think about locking into a fixed rate product for the stability of the payment.


One consideration is how you will feel if you lock into a rate in the mid to high five per cent range when rates start to move down again. Will you sleep better at night knowing you have the security of a fixed payment? Are you losing sleep thinking about where rates are going?


I recommend you think about why you chose variable in the first place. You likely enjoyed really low rates for the first part of your term and will very likely enjoy lower rates towards the end of your term as rates start to trend down again.


I guess I should have started with that. Tal’s take is that we are in for another significant rate hike very soon but he feels rates will stabilize next year and start trending down again towards the end of next year or early 2024.


One option is splitting the difference. There are lenders who offer true variable mortgages with a static payment. This means that regardless of where rates move your payment stays the same. I should say, it stays the same until the increase in rate means you aren’t paying enough to cover the interest due which in turn will affect your amortization.


You would have to pay a three-month interest penalty to break your current mortgage to switch to a lender that offers a static payment. Most lenders will allow you to capitalize up to $3,000 of your penalty into your new mortgage (more if you do a refinance instead of a straight switch, providing you have enough equity for this to work).


Going this route you will still enjoy the benefit of a variable rate mortgage once rates start moving down again, without worrying about potential penalties if you have to pay out your mortgage unexpectedly.


If you’d like to chat about this, and see if it’s a fit for you, I am happy to do a mortgage check-up and offer some insight.

Tracy Head

Mortgage Broker

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By Tracy Head June 12, 2025
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By Tracy Head June 2, 2025
Its been a while since I wrote about the importance of your credit report. This topic popped up twice this week so I think a refresher is not a bad idea. When we submit a mortgage application lenders look carefully for a few specific things: Is the home you are looking to buy or refinance readily marketable / appeals to a wide range of potential buyers? Do you have your down payment in order? Do you have consistent income to repay your mortgage? Does your overall financial profile show you manage yourself responsibly? Does your credit report reflect a history of payments made on time and as agreed? When they are reviewing your credit report they are also looking for a few specific things. How long have you had active credit facilities (credit card/line of credit/mortgage etc)? Do you have a history of making your payments on time? Do you pay most of your credit card balances off regularly or do you run with cards maxed out all the time? Lenders fully understand that sometimes life happens and we can sometimes explain one-off blips or issues. If you have a consistent history of late payments that can become a bit more challenging to explain. One thing that I chat about with my clients is how making your credit card payment a few days ahead of your statement cutoff date can really help boost your score. Over the last few years it has become more common that people use their points cards for everything over the course of the month then pay their card in full once they get their statement. If you operate your credit card this way your credit report only picks up the balance as reported on your statement so it can look like you are always carrying a significant balance even though you always pay in full. For most people this is not a big deal, but if you are working on improving your credit score this small tweak can have a huge impact. The other issue that popped up this week was incorrect information on a client’s credit report. Part of her first name was missing and the birthdate was incorrect. The client was able to confirm everything on her credit bureau for me right down to previous addresses, employers, and old loans that had been paid off. Lenders would not move forward until her credit report was corrected and in this case because two items were wrong the client needs to correct it herself (normally we can help make changes fairly quickly). Its always a good idea to review your credit report at least once a year to make sure that all of your information is reporting correctly. If there is an issue you can catch it early and correct it before you are in a panic midway through a mortgage application. Changing topic a wee bit as my daughters are on evacuation alert already … If you are in the process of buying a home as we move into fire season please make sure you have a clause in the agreement as to what will happen should there be an active fire nearby. Nail down your home insurance as early as possible because once there is an active fire close by securing an insurance policy can be very difficult if not impossible.